港口集疏运交通需求预测方法探析——以汕尾新港区为例

Study on the Forecasting Methods of A Port’s Collection and Distribution Traffic Demand: A Case Study on Shanwei New Port Area

港口集疏运交通需求预测是优化港口集疏运体系，有效提升效率和拓展腹地的重要基础。本文以汕尾新港区疏港交通为例，结合港区发展规划预测未来年疏港交通需求，并考虑港区办公服务的客运需求，建立集疏交通量计算模型，预测港区集疏运交通需求量，为港区集疏运交通体系的规划建设提供参考。

The forecast of a port＇s collection and distribution traffic demand is a foundation for the collection and distribution system optimization, efficiency enhancing and hinterland extension. A case study on Shanwci new port area is conducted. On the basis of the port area＇s development planning, future collection and distribution volume in the port area is obtained by a traffic convention model, with the consideration of the traffic demand generated by the port area office. The result can be used as a reference to support the planning and construction of the port area＇s collection and distribution system.