两种冲击视角下中国城乡经济波动福利成本研究

WELFARE COST OF URBAN-RURAL ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN CHINA UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SHOCKS

经济波动福利成本的准确测算,一方面能够对经济波动根源的差异化理论做出评判,另一方面也直接关系到政府对于经济政策的选择。本文基于Lucas福利成本模型,采用BN分解公式对消费序列进行分解,估计了暂时性冲击和持久性冲击所造成的经济波动福利成本。本文研究证实,持久性冲击所造成的经济波动福利成本远大于暂时性冲击所造成的福利成本,避免不利供给因素所带来的持久性冲击,是增进城乡居民福祉的重要举措。这与当前所实施的"供给侧结构性改革"相契合。

The accurate measurement of welfare cost of economic fluctuations not only critiques different theories about the root of economic fluctuation, but also leads government and central bank to choose appropriate economic policies. Considering the standard model proposed by Lucas only assumes the impact of transitory shocks on welfare cost and ignores the impact of permanent shocks on welfare cost, this paper applies the Beveridge and Nelson method to decompose the consumption series and measures the welfare cost which caused by transitory shocks and permanent shocks. This paper further uses urban-rural consumption data to estimate the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in different provinces. This paper coneludes that the permanent shocks cause more urban-rural welfare cost than the transitory shocks, hence avoiding the adverse supply factors which cause permanent shocks, it will be valid to reduce the urban-rural welfare loss and enhance urban-rural welfare level, which is consistent with supply-side structural reform.