基于灰色理论的能源布局与经济发展协调性分析预测

Coordination Analysis and Prediction of Energy Distribution and Economic Development Based on Gray Theory

研究就我国某市近十几年经济与能源发展历史进行分析,使用灰色关联度法得出该市经济发展和能源需求总量之间的关联;进而根据已掌握的该市未来经济发展指标,使用多元回归分析法预测该市未来能源需求总量。与之配合的是根据能源需求历史数据,使用灰色模型法对该市未来能源需求总量做的自相关预测。两种方法结合起来,综合分析该市2030年以前能源需求总量,最后使用马尔科夫链预测该市未来能源需求结构。

Analyzes the history of economic and energy development in a certain city in our country for nearly ten years and uses the gray relational degree method to get the correlation between the economic development and the total energy demand in the city.Based on the index of future economic development of the city,use multiple regression analysis to predict the citys total energy demand in the future.In line with the historical data of energy demand,using the gray model to predict the future of the city＇s energy demand for the total self-correlation forecast.Combining the two methods,a comprehensive analysis of the city＇s total energy demand by 2030,and finally using Markov chain to predict the citys future energy demand structure.