泰州市肺结核发病率的预测

The Prediction for the Incidence Rate of Tuberculosis in Taizhou

目的:预测泰州市肺结核的发病率,掌握疫情动态,为科学合理地调配肺结核的防治资源提供依据。方法:建立灰色预测模型,对7年来肺结核疫情资料进行预测分析。结果:建立的预测模型精度指标后验差比值C为0.36,小误差频率P为1.00,属于“合格”一级,预测2005 年泰州市肺结核发病率为53.14/10万,相对误差为13.84%。结论:灰色数列预测模型预测性能可靠,可以对该地肺结核的发病率做短期预测。

Objective:To predict the incidence rate of Tuberculosis in Taizhou and to better understanding of epidemic situation trends so as to provide the scientific basis for reasonable distribution of health resource on Tuberculosis prevention and treatment. Methods:According to the incidence rate of Tuberculosis in Taizhou from 1997 to 2004, we establish GM(1.1) , analyzing and predicting the trend of the incidence rate of Tuberculosis. Results:The prognosticating precision of GM(1.1) (C =0.36, P =1.00) is eligible in ac cordance with the criterion of Grey model prognostication assessment. According to the Grey model, the inci dences rate of Tuberculosis in 2005 is estimate 53.14 per 100,000 population with GM(l .1) . The prognos ticating relative error is 13.84% . Conclusion:The GM(1.1) is appropriate in short - term prediction of the incidence rate of Tuberculosis in Taizhou.