商品房价格影响因素比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Affecting Factors of Commercial Housing Prices

文章以中国东中西部地区为样本，运用面板数据模型研究了城镇人口、居民收入、人均社会产出等9个经济变量分别对商品房价格的差异性影响，从而为抑制商品房价格快速上涨提供政策建议。研究发现：（1）土地出让金会推高全部地区商品房价格，房产税会降低西部地区房价，对东中部地区房价则无显著影响。（2）城镇人口规模增长将推升东中部地区房价，城镇居民收入提高对各地区房价影响显著，城镇居民人均社会产出对中西部地区房价影响显著，但对东部地区房价则影响不大。（3）商品房成本对中西部地区房价具有影响，房地产开发投资会降低东部地区房价，却会推高西部地区房价。（4）信贷规模扩张会推动东中部地区房价上涨，但对西部地区房价不产生影响，贷款利率对各地区房价均无显著影响。基于研究结论，文章提出如下政策建议：调整中央政府与地方政府之间的财权和事权关系，优化转移支付制度，减轻地方政府对土地出让金的依赖程度；积极推进房地产税立法改革；严格控制大中城市城镇人口规模；建立城镇居民增收长效机制；促进东中西部地区经济协调发展；归并房地产开发环节税费，减轻税费负担；优化房地产投资结构，严控房地产投资风险；控制房地产信贷规模；灵活运用贷款利率政策。

With the eastern and western regions of China as samples, this paper uses the panel data model to study the difference of the economic factors such as urban population, residents＂ income and per capita social output to provide policy suggestions to curb the rapid rise of commercial house prices. The study found that ： （ 1 ） land transfer payments pushes up commercial housing prices, property tax reduces housing prices in the western region, but it has no significant impact on the housing prices in the eastern and central regions ; （2） urban population growth promotes the housing prices of eastern and central regions, urban resi- dents growth has a significant impact on housing prices of each region, the per capita social output of urban residents in the cen- tral and western regions have a significant impact on housing prices, but has no effect on the housing prices in the eastern region; （3） the cost of commercial housing has impact on the housing prices of central and western regions, real estate development in- vestment reduces the housing prices in the eastern region, but it pushes up the housing prices in the western region; （4） the ex- pansion of credit promotes the housing prices of the eastern and central regions, but has no effect for the western region, and lending rates have no significant impact on the housing prices of any region. Based on the conclusions of the study, the policy rec- ommendations are as follows： it is necessary to adjust the financial and liability relationship between the central and local govern- ments and optimize the transfer payment system in order to reduce the local governments＇ over - reliance on land transfer pay- ments ; promote the real estate tax legislative reform actively ; tighten control of large and medium cities＇ population; establish the long - term income increasing mechanism of urban residents ; promote the coordinated economic development in the eastern and central regions ; merge real estate development taxes and fees and reduce the overall tax burden; optimize the investment structure of real estate and prevent real estate development investment risk ; strictly control real estate credit scale; and flexibly use the loan interest rate policy.