地方政府政绩诉求影响房价的空间特征研究

Spatial Characteristics of the Influence of Local Government Performances on Housing Prices

在中国这样一个疆域辽阔、阡陌纵横的国度里，地方政府的政绩诉求和住房价格必然会存在各种空间关联，所以政绩诉求在影响房价的过程中必然存在多种空间特征。通过理论分析可知，地方政府政绩诉求在影响房价变动的过程中会表现出空间异质性和空间相关性。文章借助中国2001～2015年的省级面板数据，采用门限回归和空间计量模型进行实证分析后发现：从空间异质性的角度来看，地区之间随着城市化水平和财政分权度的提升，政绩诉求对房价的影响力上升；从空间相关性的角度来看，政绩诉求不仅显著提升了本省的房价，而且还对邻省房价上涨存在明显的促进作用。据此可知，为保障房地产业的健康发展，在城市化水平较高、财政分权度较高、高房价城市集聚的省份进行官员政绩考核时，降低对GDP增长率、失业率、财政增收的评价比重将大有裨益。

China has a vast territory, so there will be correlations between local government performances and housing prices in all regions. A theoretical analysis shows that local government performances will have spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation characteristics in the process of influencing housing prices. Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2015 in China and two kinds of regression models, namely the panel threshold regression and the spatial econometric methods, this paper finds ： from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, the influence of local government performances on housing prices will rise as the urbanization rate increases and the degree of fiscal decentralization increases in regions ; from the perspective of spatial correlation, local government performances significantly promote not only local housing prices, but also those of neighboring provinces. In order to guarantee the healthy development of the real estate industry, cutting the weight of the GDP, the unemployment rate, and increases in fiscal revenues in the assessment of local government performances will be of great benefit in the regions with a high rate of urbanization and a high degree of financial decentralization.