民主反腐的情境适配:一项跨国比较研究

Anti-corruption and the Contextual Fitness of Democracy:a Cross-national Comparative Analysis

认识民主与腐败之间的复杂关系，必须关注民主与发展情境的适配性。文章基于135个国家2009～2012年的数据，借助模糊集定性比较分析考察民主、情境与腐败之间的因果关系。就单个条件而言，民主水平与腐败程度之间并不存在因果关系，而有效保护产权可使国家免于严重腐败。就组合效应而言，主要表现为：第一，同样是高民主国家，若政治稳定、经济发达且产权有效保护，能实现低腐败，而若政府规模小且产权缺乏保护，则会陷于高腐败；第二，低民主、政治不稳定且产权缺乏保护，会导致高腐败；第三，若经济落后、政府规模小且产权缺乏保护，无论民主程度高低，都会沦为高腐败。因此，在反腐败过程中，必须慎重考虑民主化的情境适配性，而法治化建设应当优先于民主化的推进。

To reveal the complex relationship between democracy and corruption, this study examines the combinational effect of democracy and national context rather than the net effect of democracy per se. Based on the data of 135 countries from 2009 to 2012, our fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis shows that no causation exists between democracy per se and corruption, while severe corruption can be avoided if property fight is effectively protected. The combinational effects of democracy and na- tional context are： first, political stability, economic affluence and protected property right produce clean democracies, while small governments and the weak protection of property rights lead to corrupted democracies; second, severe corruption arises if low - level democracy, small governments and the weak protection of property rights coexist ; third, in those undeveloped coun- tries with small governments and the weak protection of property fights, severe corruption will be present, whatever the level of democracy. This study suggests more attention should be paid to the contextual fitness of democracy and the rule of law, especially the protection of property rights, should be promoted prior to democratization.