中国国际投资头寸结构特点及变化趋势

Variation Trend of China's International Investment Position

我国国际投资头寸结构存在着严重的问题,该问题主要表现为对外资产收益与对外负债成本不对等以及对外资产负债结构的明显失衡。通过对中、日、德三个国家的国际投资头寸进行比较分析,文章认为中国国际投资头寸的结构未来会出现以下几个方面的变化:第一,储备投资占对外资产的比重将会下降;第二,对外直接投资占对外资产的比重将会上升;第三,证券投资占对外资产和负债的比重都将有所上升;第四,外商直接投资占对外负债的比重将会下降。

There are serious problems existing in the structure of international investment position of China,which mainly reflect the unbalance conditions inside the external assets and foreign liabilities.Through the comparative analysis of the international investment positions between China,Japan and Germany,our study suggests that the structure of China's international investment position would be reformed in the following aspects.First,the proportion of reserved investment in foreign assets would be declining.Second,the proportion of foreign direct investment in foreign assets would be rising.Third,the proportion of securities investment in foreign assets and liabilities would be rising.And lastly,the proportion of foreign direct investment in foreign debts would be declining.