人口年龄结构与房价关系探讨——以合肥市为例

The Relationship between Population Age Structure and House Price——Taking Hefei as an Example

将研究重点定位在人口年龄结构角度,以城镇化为背景,选择了房价涨幅较大、发展较快的合肥市为研究对象,在总结前人研究的基础上,运用2001~2015年合肥市的统计数据,通过SPSS和EViews7软件进行分析。结果表明,少儿抚养比对房地产价格产生负影响,老年抚养比对房地产价格产生正影响,但生育政策的改变可能会加重社会生产者的负担,届时家庭需求可能造成房价的波动。政府的宏观调控应适当考虑社会生产者的实际负担,精准施政、科学管理。

The study focuses on the perspective of population age structure,with the background of urbanization,the rapid development of the city and the housing prices rose significantly,the city of Hefei was taken as the research object,on the basis of previous studies,statistical data in Hefei during 2001 and 2015 were analyzed by SPSS and EViews7 software. The results show that the children＇s dependency ratio has negative influence on real estate prices,the old-age dependency ratio has a positive impact on real estate price,but the one-child policy change may exacerbate social burden on producers,then the household demand may cause fluctuations in prices. The government＇s macro-control should also consider the actual burden of social producers,precision policy implementation and scientific management.