基于博弈论和D-S证据理论的城市防洪标准方案决策优选方法

Optimal Selection Method of Urban Flood Control Standard Schemes Based on Game Theory and D-S Evidence Theory

针对城市防洪标准方案决策优选涉及的评价指标权重计算、不确定性处理等问题,提出了基于博弈论和DS证据理论相结合的决策优选方法。首先引入博弈论来集结多种主客观权重信息,进行均衡博弈来获得科学合理的综合权重;然后引入D-S证据理论来处理决策优选的不确定性,应用灰色关联分析来构建基本概率信度函数(Mass函数);其次利用D-S证据理论的证据合成法则对Mass函数进行信息融合;最终依据信度函数值排序给出最佳方案。实例研究表明提出的方法简便可行、合理有效,能有效增加权重信息的利用率和刻画评价指标的不确定性,并可显著地降低决策的不确定性,在实际工程方案决策优选中具有重要的理论意义和良好的推广应用价值。

In order to effectively solve the problems of weight calculation and uncertainty treatment in the decision-making of urban flood control standard schemes, a new optimal selection method based on game theory and D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, the game theory is introduced to gather various subjective and objective weights information, so as to obtain the comprehensive weights as scientific and reasonable as possible. And then D-S evidence theory is introduced to deal with the uncertainties of decision-making, and grey relation analysis is employed to build the basic probability reliability function, and the D-S evidence theory is applied for information fusion. Finally, the best scheme is put forward on the basis of reliability function. Case studies show that the proposed method is simple, reasonable and effective, and can increase the utilization rate of weight information and describe the uncertainty of evaluation indexes as well as significantly reduce the uncertainty of decision -making, thus it has an important theoretical significance and good application value in practical engineering optimal selection.