河北省碳排放及其影响因素变化趋势研究

Study on the Change Trend of Carbon Emissions and Its Influencing Factors in Hebei Province

在国家"十三五"规划政策的指引下,减少碳排放是当今社会的大势所趋。以产业结构调整优化为目的,就河北省碳排放及其影响因素变化趋势进行研究,旨在生态文明建设中促进京津冀产业协同发展。在研究碳排放时,运用STIRPAT模型,根据河北省实际情况,将影响碳排放的因素分为城市化水平、人口数量、富裕度和能源强度,并选取了河北省2003-2014年碳排放及其相关数据作为研究样本,经过对能源消耗量的转换计算得到比较精确的碳排放数据。在此基础上分别建立碳排放灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和碳排放影响因素灰色GM(1,1)预测模型来预测2015-2020年对应的数据变化。并分析各个影响因素的变化趋势及其对碳排放的影响。经过分析发现,富裕度对碳排放影响最大,所以政府等相关部门应加大对该方面的监督与管理,从而从整体上达到低碳的目标。

Under the guidance of national 13 ^（th）＂five-year-plan＂policy, reducing carbon emissions is the general trend of today＇s society. In order to optimize the industrial structure adjustment, this paper studies the change trend of carbon emission and its influencing factors in Hebei Province, aiming at promoting the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in the construction of ecological civilization. In the study of carbon emissions, the use of STIRPAT model, according to the actual situation in Hebei Province, will divide the factors that affect carbon emissions into urbanization, population, wealth and energy intensity. The carbon emission data of Hebei Province from 2003 to 2014 are selected as the research samples, and the accurate carbon emission data are calculated through the conversion of energy consumption. On this basis, the GM（1,1） forecasting model of carbon emission and GM（1,1） forecasting model of carbon emission influence factors were established to predict the corresponding data change from 2015 to 2020 respectively. And the change trend of each influencing factor and its influence on carbon emission are analyzed. It is found that the wealth has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, so the relevant government departments should increase supervision and management of the area, so as to achieve the overall goal of low-carbon.