中美两国在南美洲的地缘经济格局比较

The Spatio-Temporal Patterns Evolution of Geo-Economy of China and the US in South America

随着经济全球化日趋复杂和中国“一带一路”倡议的国际认同度日益提高，大国间的地缘经济博弈成为影响国际关系的重要因素和手段。南美洲虽然是传统地缘政治理论中的“外围地带”，但其独特的地缘政治区位和作为中国“一带一路”拓展方向的战略定位，使其成为中美两国地缘经济博弈的重要地区。文章从投资与贸易两个维度来刻画地缘经济联系的强弱，探讨2000-2015年中美两国在南美洲地缘经济博弈的时空演变和格局差异及其影响因素。主要结论包括：①中国与美国对南美洲的经济依赖明显低于南美洲国家对中美两国的经济依赖程度，双边均呈现出不均衡的相互依赖。②从时空演进上看，相对于美国，中国在南美洲的地缘经济联系强度的增强呈现出由南向北扩展的趋势，这主要受到地理因素的影响，使得南美洲内部呈现南北差异。③中美两国在南美洲地缘经济博弈中，在贸易与投资领域呈现出不同特征，中国侧重于通过投资的方式与美国进行博弈，并从2010年开始在投资方面比美国更具优势，而美国则更加注重保持在南美洲已有的贸易地位。

With the complexification of economic globalization and the promotion of the international recognition to the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiation, the geo-economic competition game between big powers has become an important factor affecting international relations. Although South America is a ＂marginal outskirt area＂ on the land according to the classical geopolitical theories, its unique geopolitical location and its strategic orientation as an extending area of the ＂Belt and Road＂ make it one of the most significant region that China and the United States play the geo-economic competition game on. This paper tries to ascribe the intensity of geo-economy relation from the dimensions of trade and investment. Next, explore the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of the geo-economic competition game between China and the United States in South America from 2000 to 2015 and discuss the differences and the influencing factors. We draw the conclusions as follows： Firstly, China and the United States depend less on South America than South America countries depends on the two countries, both sides presented an imbalance interdependence relation. Secondly, in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of the competition game, comparing with the United States, China＇ s geo-economic relationswith South America countries appearsanintensivetendency spreading from the south to the north, which is mainly restricted by geographical factors, separating South America by the Amazon rainforest. Thirdly, among the elements of the geo-economic competition game between China and the United States, international trade and investment have shown different feature. China prefers to compete by investment and appears great advantage on investment to the United States, while the United States lay more emphasis on keeping the international trading dominant status on South America. Base on the discoveries above, we propose the following suggestions. First, China should pay more attention to the cooperation with South America on merchandise trade, especially the commodities that China and South America have higher complementarity. Second, when striving for bigger economic shares, China need to take differentiation strategy on different countries and avoid head-on confrontation with the United States. Finally, in addition to deepening economic cooperation, China can explore new areas of cooperation in trade and economic sectors with South America.