丝绸之路沿线交通基础设施空间经济溢出效应测度

Measuring Spatial Economic Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure along the Silk Road Economic Belt

基于SDM空间计量模型，分别构建邻接、地理距离、经济空间3种权重矩阵，从宏观一分区一国家3个层级测度2000-2015年丝绸之路经济带交通基础设施空间经济溢出效应。结果表明：①3种权重下，丝绸之路经济带沿线各国人均GDP均存在显著的空间集聚特征，但经济空间权重下的全局Moran’s 1指数要高于其他权重。②宏观层面来看，交通基础设施对丝绸之路经济带经济发展存在正向的空间溢出效应，溢出效应约为直接效应的10倍。经济空间权重的直接效应和溢出效应要明显优于其他权重。③从分区层面来看，交通基础设施的溢出效应在丝绸之路经济带各个区域存在显著差异：西北五省存在正向的空间溢出效应，溢出效应约为直接效应的2倍；中亚区域、西亚区域均不显著；东欧区域存在正向的直接效应，但溢出效应并不显著。④从国家层面来看，交通基础设施的直接效应在空间上呈现出集聚分布的特征，东欧区域的直接效应要明显高于其他区域；交通基础设施的溢出效应符合距离衰减原理，随着距离增加溢出效应呈现下降趋势。

Taking the SDM spatial econometric model and constructing adjacency, geographical distance and economic space as weight matrices, the paper measures spatial economic spillover effects of transport infrastructure in the Silk Road Economic Belt by the macro-subregional-national 3 scales from 2000 to 2015. The results show that： 1） There is significant spatial agglomeration characteristic of GDP per capita of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt at three weights, but the global Moran＇ s I indexs of economic space weight are higher than those of other weights.2） On the macro scale, transport infrastructure has a positive spatial spillover effect on the economic development of the Silk Road Economic Belt, and the spillover effect is about 10 times that of the direct effect. The direct effect and spillover effect of economic space weight are obviously better than those of other weights. 3） On the subregional scale, spillover effects of transport infrastructure have significant differences： the northwestern region have positive spillover effect, which is about 2 times the direct effect; the Central Asian region and the West Asian region have no significant spillover effects; the East European region has a positive direct effect, but the spillover effect is not signififcant.4） On the national scale, direct effect of transport infrastructure shows cluster distribution in the space, direct effect of the East European region is higher than that of other regions; spillover effect of transport infrastructure is in accordance with the distance attenuation principle. With the increasing of distance, spillover effect shows a downward trend.