中国沿海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性时空演变

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Vulnerability and Coordination of Marine Eco-Economic System in Coastal Area of China

海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性研究的最终目的是实现海洋经济的可持续发展。基于海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性的内涵构建海洋生态经济系统评价指标体系，运用脆弱性与协调性评价方法对中国沿海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性进行动态评价研究。结果表明：①2006-2014年，中国海洋生态经济系统的脆弱性指数较低，整体上处于中度脆弱阶段，但绝大多数省市的脆弱性指数呈上升态势，整体发展状况不容乐观。②2006-2014年，中国沿海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性呈现出整体分散、部分连片集中的空间分异格局。其中，东北沿海地区与华东沿海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性逐渐升高，华北沿海地区与华南沿海地区呈现出两极分异的空间格局。③2006-2014年，中国海洋生态经济系统整体协调性指数较低且呈上升趋势，轻度失调状态居于主导地位且逐步扩展至沿海地区。④2006-2014年，中国沿海地区海洋经济子系统与生态子系统的协调性整体呈下降趋势，海洋经济的快速发展与海洋生态环境优化之间的矛盾仍然凸显；海洋经济子系统与社会子系统协调性整体呈上升态势，但仍处于轻度失调状态；中国沿海地区海洋生态子系统与社会子系统协调性整体发展较好，空间上呈现出多样化的演变态势，绿水青山就是金山银山的发展理念在海洋领域逐步体现。

The ultimate goal of studying marine ecological and economic systems＇ vulnerability and coordination is to help establish sustainable development of marine economies. Based on the connotation of marine ecological and economic system＇ s vulnerability and coordination, this paper first constructs an index system for marine economic systems, and then focuses on the dynamic simulation of marine ecological and economic system＇ s vulnerability and coordination in coastal area of China. The findings from 2006 to 2014 include： 1） the vulnerability index of China＇s marine eco-economic system is relatively low, the overall vulnerability is moderate and the trend is not optimistic ,but the vulnerability index of the vast majority of provinces and cities is on the rise. 2） The fragility of the marine eco-economic system in China＇s coastal areas shows the pattern of spatial differentiation of the whole scattered and part - contiguous areas. Among them, the fragility of the marine ecological economic system in the coastal areas of Northeast China and East China gradually increased, and the polarized spatial patterns of the coastal areas of North China and South China were different. 3） The overall coordination index of China＇s marine eco-economic system is low but on the upward trend, the mild imbalance is dominant and gradually spreads to the coastal areas. 4） The coordination between the marine economic subsystem and the ecological subsystem of the coastal areas of China is declining as a whole, and the contradiction between the rapid development of marine economy and the optimization of marine ecological environment is still prominent; the coordination between marine economic subsystem and social subsystem is on the whole rising trend, but still in the state of mild imbalance. The coordinated development of the marine ecological subsystem and the social subsystem in the coastal areas of China is developing in a better direction, showing a diversified evolutionary trend in space, the development concept of lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets in the marine area gradually reflected.