我国主要农产品虚拟水贸易风险等级评估

The Risk Prediction of Virtual Water Trade of Major Agricultural Product in China

虚拟水贸易可以有效缓解水资源压力并保障粮食安全，但目前我国主要农产品虚拟水贸易存在一定风险。应用投影寻踪-信息扩散理论模型定量分析我国区际间主要农产品虚拟水贸易风险的等级及发生概率，结果表明：交通因素、人口因素和自然因素对虚拟水贸易风险的影响较大，这与传统虚拟水战略中水资源是虚拟水贸易的主导因素相悖；我国大部分地区虚拟水贸易风险处于较不安全（Ⅱ）和临界安全（Ⅲ）状态，少数地区属于极不安全（Ⅰ）的状态，等级Ⅳ和等级V没有对应的地区分布；我国虚拟水贸易风险等级值为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ和Ⅴ的概率分别为1．000、0．792、0．592、0．394和0．198，说明我国粮食和水资源安全出现高风险的几率较大，极易出现粮食危机和水危机，评价结果与我国国情基本相符。

Virtual water trade can effectively alleviate the pressure on water resources and food security, but there is regional applicability. Because there is the dislocation phenomenon between the virtual water trade patterns of major agricultural products and distribution of water resources, which lead to a certain risk on the current virtual water trade of major agricultural products. On the basis of constructing the virtual water trade flows relationship matrix of Chinese interregional major agricultural products from 1999 to 2011, the virtual water trade risk grade and the probability of occurrence of interregional major agricultural products is quantitatively analyzed by applying the projection pursuit- information diffusion theory model, the results showed that： transportation, population and natural factors greatly impact on the virtual water trade risk, which runs counter to the idea that is the water is the dominant factor in the virtual water trade about the traditional virtual water strategy. In most parts of China, the virtual water trade risk is between the less safe status（Ⅱ） and the critical safety status（Ⅲ）, a few areas are in extremely insecure （ Ⅰ ） status , there is no area corresponding to the grade Ⅳ and the grade Ⅴ. The probability of virtual water trade risk grade value of Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ are 1.000, 0.792, 0.592, 0.792 and 0.592, which shows that there is high risk probability in food and water security and the food crisis and water crisis is easy to appear. The evaluation results are basically consistent with China＇s national conditions.