安全预测学:安全科学中势在必建的分支学科

Safety Forecasting Science: A Branch of Safety Science in Urgent Need to be Established

针对目前学界在理论层面对安全预测研究极其缺乏的问题,立足于学科建设高度,进行安全预测学的建立研究。首先,根据预测的定义,基于系统视角,给出安全预测的定义,并分析其内涵。其次,提出安全预测学的定义,并深入剖析其内涵及创立安全预测学的依据。最后,系统探讨安全预测学的学科性质、研究内容、学科分类与学科基础4个学科基本问题。结果表明,安全预测的本质是一种安全科学研究与实践的方法论;安全预测学是专门研究与探讨系统未来的安全状态发展变化规律的一门新兴综合交叉学科,是安全科学中势在必建的分支学科。

Aiming at the great lack of theoretical research on safety forecasting in the current academic community, this pa- per tries to establish the safety forecasting science based on the discipline construction. First of all, from the systematic per- spective, the definition of safety forecasting is proposed based on the definitions of forecasting, and its connotation is ex- plained, then, the definition of safety forecasting science is put forward, and its connotation and establishment evidence are analyzed thoroughly. Finally, four basic issues in safety forecasting science （ including discipline features, research con- tent, discipline classification and discipline foundation） are systematically discussed. The results show that the essence of safety forecasting is one kind of methodology of the research and practice of safety science. On the meanwhile, safety fore- casting science is a new inter - discipline which is specialized in studying the developmental and variable rules of future safety state of system, and it is a branch of safety science that is in urgent need to be established.