基于网络层次分析法的乙炔生产厂应急救援能力评价

Emergency rescue capability evaluation of an acetylene production plant based on a network analytic hierarchy process

乙炔生产厂应急救援能力评价指标之间关系复杂,各指标相互影响,使得常规的评价方法难以准确地体现这种错综复杂的关系,无法对乙炔生产厂应急救援能力进行准确的评估。为了提高乙炔生产厂应急救援能力并提供一种更加合理的评价方法,按照事故发生的时间顺序,结合乙炔生产厂应急救援的特点,基于网络层次分析法从事故预防、应急准备、应急响应、灾后恢复4个方面建立了评价指标体系,将复杂问题系统化,解决了各指标下一层内部指标间以及相邻层指标间相互影响的问题,保证了评价的客观性。以某乙炔有限责任公司为例进行计算分析,基于网络层次分析法(ANP)建立了乙炔生产厂应急救援能力评估指标体系模型,运用超级决策(SD)软件和专家打分法实现了对各评价指标的赋权和评分,最终得到该公司的应急救援能力为"良"。依据评价结果,提出通过提高预防事故能力、完善灾后恢复相关工作和增强灾后重建能力来提高该企业应急救援能力的对策。

The relationship between the evaluation indexes of the emergency rescue capability for an acetylene pro- duction plant is complicated, and the indexes affect each other. General evaluation methods can not accurately re- flect this complicated relationship, and can not accurately evaluate the emergency rescue capability for an acetylene production plant. In order to improve the emergency rescue capability for an acetylene production plant and provide a more realistic evaluation method, in this the paper, we propose an analytic hierarchy process whereby the time se- quence of the accident, combined with the characteristics of the acetylene gas plant emergency, can be used to es- tablish a valuation index system involving accident prevention, emergency preparedness, emergency response, and restoration after a disaster. This can solve the problems of the complexity of the system, the interactions between the indexes of the next levels, and the interactions between the indexes of adjacent levels, and thus ensure the objectiv- ity of the evaluation. Based on calculations and analysis for the Hengsheng Acetylene Limited Company, an evalua- tion index system model of the emergency rescue capability of their acetylene gas plant is established using the net- work hierarchy analysis method. The empowerment and score of each evaluation index were realized by using the super decision software and the expert scoring method, and showed that the company＇s emergency rescue capability was ＂good＂. According to the evaluation results, countermeasures which should improve the emergency rescue ca- pability of the enterprise, such as improving the ability of accident prevention, improving the disaster recovery measures and enhancing the ability of disaster reconstruction are put forward.