1985-2015年全球贸易网络格局的时空演化及对中国地缘战略的启示

Spatial and temporal patterns of evolution of global trade networks during 1985-2015 and its enlightenment to China's geostrategy

从社会网络视角,采用中心度、社团划分和结构熵等社会网络指标,探究全球贸易网络的空间格局及演化特征,重点分析中国在网络中的社团归属及其地缘战略启示。研究表明:随着时间推移,发展中国家的群体性崛起使得全球贸易网络结构呈现日益多元化的复杂格局;全球贸易网络的社团演化经历了发达国家主导、亚洲崛起的萌芽、亚洲社团的分离和"三足鼎立"四个阶段,中国从被支配的边缘地位逐步走向"舞台中央";中、美、德三国在全球市场细分过程中形成一种"错位竞争"关系,亚太、中东、非洲和拉美地区成为大国之间争夺贸易市场的博弈区域。中国应首先立足于亚太地区,通过"一带一路"倡议延伸至中东、非洲和拉美地区,将经济优势转化为全球战略影响力。

The paper, from the perspective of social network, explores the spatial pattems and evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network and focuses on the Chinese community ownership and their strategic implications by adopting social network indexes, including centrality, community classification and structure entropy. The results show that： （1） The structure of global trade network evolved towards complexity, specifically shifted from ＂one super state and more powerful countries＂ towards＂multi-polarization＂. The collective rise of developing countries has weakened the monopoly position of traditional European and American countries in the network, leading to increasing complexity of the network structure. （2） Community evolution of the global trade network has experienced the dominant stage of the developed countries, the budding stage of the Asian region, the separated stage of the Asian Community and the fourth stages of ＂ripartite confrontation＂. During the evolution, China has gradually moved from being dominated to the center of the stage. （3） The diversification of trade market is a common characteristic of foreign trade countries. In the process of global market segmentation, China, the United States, and Germany gradually formed a relationship of ＂dislocation competition＂, and their core interests are concentrated around the surrounding areas. （4） The areas of Asia-Pacific Region, Middle East, Africa and Latin America have become the play field of China to compete other powers for local trade markets. Currently, the Asia-Pacific market is the preferred market for China＇s global trade, and China should extend the market to the Middle East, Africa and Latin America through ＂Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road＂, In this way, economic advantage can be transformed into global strategic influence. Meanwhile, direct conflicts and confrontations with the core interests of the United States should be avoided.