昆明市2000—2010年乡镇人口空间自相关及其时空演变分析

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of Town Population of Kunming and Its Temporal and Spatial Change from 2000 to 2010

昆明作为云南省的省会城市,其人口的空间分布特征对该地区的城市规划和经济发展具有重要意义。本文以昆明市112个乡镇的矢量数据和2000、2010年的人口数据为基础,运用Moran I指数和Moran I散点图对昆明市2000和2010年的乡镇人口进行了空间自相关及其时空演变分析。结论如下:(1)2000和2010年,昆明市乡镇人口分布呈现显著的正向空间自相关特征,且人口分布出现以昆明市市中心和滇池为中心的"人口高地带"和北部山区的"人口低地带",这与昆明市海拔"北高南低"和地势"北部起伏大、南部和缓"趋于一致;(2)地形要素是昆明市乡镇人口2000和2010年空间自相关的基础,而随着交通条件的改善和城市化的发展,2000—2010年10年间昆明市乡镇人口空间自相关显著增强,但人口密度出现较大的空间差异。

Kunming is the capital of Yunnan province, the spatial distribution characteristics of the population is great significance to the region＇s urban planning and economic development. Taking Kunming 112 villages and towns of vector data and 2000, 2010 popula- tion data as the foundation, using Moran I index and Moran I scatter plot township population of 2000 and 2010 in Kunming, this pa- per analyzes the spatial autocorrelation and its temporal and spatial change. Conclusion is as follows： （ 1 ） in 2000 and 2010, Kunming township population distribution has significant positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics, and population distribution forms the ＂ Population High Zone＂ of Kunming city center and Dianchi Lake, and the ＂ Population Low Zone＂ in the mountains of northern, which tends to be more consistent with the altitude of ＂South low and North high＂ and with the terrain of ups and downs in North , gentle in the South. （2） the terrain factor is the basis of spatial autocorrelation, and as the improvement of traffic conditions and the development of urbanization, the township population spatial autocorrelation significantly enhanced from 2000 to 2010 ,with 10 years in Kunming , but a larger population density spatial difference appears.