民间金融与中国宏观经济——理论机制与实证分析

Informal Financeand Chinese Macro Economy—Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis

作为中小企业的主要融资渠道,民间金融对中国经济发展具有重要作用。本文理论探究了民间金融对中国主要宏观经济变量的作用机制,并以此为基础选取全国地区性民间借贷综合利率指数作为民间金融的代理指标,建立VAR模型分析了民间金融对这些宏观经济变量的影响。研究发现：民间金融在理论上能直接以及通过货币政策间接影响经济增长和通货膨胀;而民间金融与货币政策的互动依赖于宏观经济变量之间的联系或正规金融的传导。从实证分析来看,民间金融的发展对经济增长有显著影响,作用方式是先促进后抑制;同时民间金融也能显著影响通货膨胀,其利率升高会加剧通货膨胀;但是民间金融和货币政策无显著关系,这是由于经济增长和通货膨胀没有起到传递作用以及民间金融和正规金融无明显的互动,由此表明民间金融并不能通过货币政策间接影响经济增长和通货膨胀。本文的研究有助于深入理解民间金融与宏观经济的关系,对制定相应的经济政策和管控民间金融风险具有重要的借鉴意义。

As the crucial financing channel for small and medium-sized enterprise in China, the informal finance plays an important role in the development of Chinese economy. In this paper, the theoretical influencing mechanism running from informal finance to Chinese main macroeconomic variables is explored. On this basis, the VAR model is used to empirically investigate the impacts of informal finance on these macroeconomic variables by choosing China private finance index as the agent of informal finance. The results show that, in theory, the informal finance can directly and indirectly through the monetary policy affect e- conomic growth and inflation; the interaction between the informal finance and the monetary policy de- pends on the linkages among macroeconomic variables or relies on the transmission of formal finance. From the perspective of empirical analysis, the informal finance has a significant effect on the economical growth, and the development of informal finance first positively affect economic growth, and then turns to a negative effect on it. The informal finance can also significantly affect inflation, and the rise of private finance rate will exacerbate inflation. However, because the economic growth and inflation cannot significantly affect the monetary policy and the informal finance does not have a significant interaction with the formal finance, there is not an evident relationship between the informal finance and the monetary policy, which indicates that informal finance can＇t indirectly affect economic growth and inflation through monetary policy. These results provide a deeper insight into the relationships between the informal finance and macroeconomic variables, which will be benefit to make corresponding economic policy and control the risk of the informal finance.