1990-2015年浙江省人口时空变迁特征与趋势分析

The Characteristic Analysis and Tendency of Space-time Change of Population in Zhejiang from 1990 to 2015

根据1990-2015年浙江省68个市县单元的人口统计数据,借助Arcgis技术,运用线性回归方程、人口分布指数法、偏移—增长法及增长速率统计法,研究该地区人口变迁的时空特征,分析浙江省城市化人口承载空间主体的变化趋势,为省域空间发展战略提供理论支持。结论为:(1)在工业化和城市化推动下,25年来浙江总人口快速增长,经历了稳增、剧增、滞涨三阶段;(2)在全省人口密度提高的同时,人口分布密度的地区差异性同步提高,人口集聚中心逐步由中小城镇密集区位向大城市区位迁移;(3)县域人口占据大部分比重,但占比持续下降,省域中心城市人口占比持续上升,地区中心城市人口占比基本平稳;(4)杭州、宁波、温州三大都市区形成了省域人口增长的高值区,但三大都市区呈现出不同的人口成长阶段与模式特征;(5)全省形成了超高速、高速、中高速、中速、低速、负速六大人口增长区域,并呈现出九种增长变化趋势特征。

Situated in the demographic data of 68 counties in Zhejiang from 1990 to 2015, using the linear regression equation, population distribution index method, growth-shift method growth and rate statistic method with the aid of Arcgis, the paper studies the space-time characteristics of population change and the trend of the main spatial carrier to urbanization population in Zhejiang, thereby providing theoretical strategy for the region. The results are as follows： （l） With industrialization and urbanization, the population of Zhejiang which has been growing rapidly in the past 25 years could be divided into three stages： steady increase, soar and stagflation; （2） The population density and its distribution differences between regions increased. The population concentration center is gradually moved from the small and medium-sized towns intensive location to the big city location; （3） County population accounted for most of the proportion which continued to decline, the proportion of provincial central city population was the opposite, and regional central city population＇s was relatively stable; （4） Hangzhou, Ningbo and Wenzhou metropolitan areas which formed high-value areas of population growth were different between the population growth stages and pattern; （5）The province formed six population growth area includes super high-speed, high-speed, medium-high speed, medium speed, low speed and negative speed, showing nine growth trends.