中国县域单元城镇人口收缩的空间格局及其影响因素分析

Spatial Pattern and Influence Factors Analysis of Population Shrinkage in County Unit in China

中国正处于高速城镇化进程中,城镇发展速度与规模令全球瞩目,但与此同时亦出现了类似于西方城市的人口收缩,对城镇发展与空间重构带来了深刻影响,有关中国城镇人口收缩的讨论正成为热点。本文以中国县域单元城镇人口为研究对象,基于2000年和2010年两次人口普查数据,构建常住人口年均增长率测度指数以识别中国人口收缩程度及其空间格局,进而从经济发展水平、城镇化、产业结构、人口结构、行政管理体制等五方面对人口收缩的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)2000-2010年期间,中国超过1/3的城镇出现不同程度的人口收缩,其中绝大多数人口收缩的城镇人口规模下降幅度较低,收缩程度较轻微;(2)中国人口收缩呈现"一核心、两带、两片区"的空间格局,集聚特征明显并以高一高集聚为主导;(3)影响中国人口收缩的因素和作用机制非常复杂,经济发展水平、产业结构、城镇化、人口结构以及行政管理体制均具有一定的解释力,对人口收缩城镇影响较大。

During the process of rapid urbanization, the speed and scale of urban development in China is remarkable. But at the same time, the population shrinkage which is similar to western cities appears and brings a profound impact on urban development and spatial reconstruction. The discussion about population shrinkage in China is becoming a hot spot. This paper took the population of county unit in China as the research object, based on the data in 2000 and 2010 census of population, an average annual growth rate index has been constructed to identify the degree of population shrinkage and its spatial pattern, and the influence factors of population shrinkage have been analyzed from economic development level, urbanization level, industrial structure, population structure and administrative system. Results show： （1） during the period of 2000-2010, there are more than a third of cities appearing varying degrees of population shrinkage, among them, the scale of the vast majority of population shrinkage declines slightly and the degree of shrinkage is slightly; （2） population shrinkage in China presents the spatial pattern of ＂one core, two belt, two area＂ and has obvious agglomeration characteristics, and is dominated by high- high agglomeration; （3） factors affecting population shrinkage and its action mechanism are very complex. Economic development level, urbanization, industrial structure, population structure and administrative system have a certain degree of interpretation, and have a great influence on population shrinkage towns.