通货膨胀、影响因素与信息渠道

Inflation,Influence Factors and Information Channel

宏观经济因素对通货膨胀影响的内在传导机制错综复杂,因此,构建反映多变量影响通胀途径的模型较为困难。从"信息渠道"的视角解析各变量影响通胀的过程,利用信息长度区分不同变量的传导路径,则可构建一个可以近似模拟通胀影响传导效应的系统。具体步骤是:首先,引入扩展的菲利普斯曲线,刻画影响通胀的理论机制;其次,引入信息长度概念,利用物理学中的热传导方程,建立各因素通过信息渠道影响通胀的传导模型;最后,利用向量误差修正模型冲击响应函数的长短期分解技术,研究产出、货币、国际商品价格以及政策因素对通货膨胀的长期及短期影响,并分析各变量传导中的信息阻滞特征及原因。

It is always a complicated problem to model the transmission mechanism from macro-variable changes to inflation fluctuation. The paper proposes an analyzing framework in an alternative way using ＂information channel＂ that covers the inflation transmission process. The concept of length of information of the channel is used to differentiate the path for different variables. To begin with, inflation affecting model is set up by introducing equation of heat conduction in physics. Then we build the system that can simulate how inflation is affected through information channel. Finally, the long-run effects and short-run effects of output, money and international commodity price are studied empirically by permanence-transitory decomposition; the information block character for each variable is analyzed and explanations are provided.