中国与“一带一路”地区的新产品边际贸易及贸易增长研究——基于不同贸易部门性质的分析

A Study on New Goods Margin Trade and Trade Growth in China and the B&R Region——An Analysis Based on Natures of Different Trade Sectors

本文在传统的出口增长二元边际分析框架下,引入最少贸易商品和贸易阈值等概念,在扩展边际理论的基础上给出了新产品边际的定义,还原了中国对"一带一路"地区出口增长中商品种类外延扩展的真实作用。本文通过匹配协整HS分类6位码下326万组贸易数据,测算出了中国对"一带一路"地区65国在2005—2015年的集约边际增长与新产品边际增长情况。中国对"一带一路"地区的出口增长中,新产品边际是促进贸易增长的重要因素,尤其是对于人均收入较低、经济增长率较高的发展中国家,新产品边际起到了更为重要的作用。同时,本文还对可能影响二元边际增长的各因素进行了经验研究,结果显示,经济规模、对外开放程度、贸易成本等因素对集约边际和新产品边际有着不同的影响机制。

Within the traditional dual marginal analysis framework of export growth, this paper introduces the concepts of ＂least trade goods＂ and ＂trade threshold＂, and defines the ＂new goods margin＂ on the basis of the extensive margin theory, with a view to restoring China＇s real effect on the extension of commodity classification in export growth of the B＆R （the ＂Belt and Road＂） re- gion. Through matching and integrating 3.26 million groups of trade data in the HS-6 digits classification codes, this paper comes up with the growth of intensive margin and new goods margin of China to the 65 countries along the B＆R from 2005 to 2015. Results show that in China＇s export growth to the B＆R region, new goods margin is an important factor in promoting trade growth, play- ing a more significant role especially in the developing cotmtries with lower percapita income and economic growth rate. This is different from previous studies which emphasize that export growth mainly depends on the intensive margin. Mean- while, this paper also summarizes the factors that affect the growth of dual margin. Results indicate that economic scale, the degree of openness and trade cost have different influence mechanisms on intensive margin and new goods margin.