中国货币供应量对物价影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of China’s Money Supply on Price

本文采用1995-2015年的年度数据，通过回归分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析等计量方法，分析中国的货币供应量增长率变动对物价的影响。结果显示：货币供应量的增长率对物价有一个正向的带动作用，两者存在长期的均衡关系；广义货币增长率变动对物价的影响最迅速，狭义货币增长率变动对物价的影响最大，流通中现金增长率对物价的影响最持久。

In this paper, the annual data of 1995- 2015 are used to analyze the influence of China＇ s money supply growth rate on price by regression analysis, cointegration test, Granger cau- sality test, impulse response and variance decompo- sition analysis. The results show that the growth rate of money supply has a positive effect on price, and there is a long -term equilibrium relationship between the two. The change of generalized money growth rate has the most rapid impact on prices. The narrow money growth rate has the greatest impact on prices. The cash flow in the growth rate has the most lasting impact on prices.