未来气候变化对东北玉米品种布局的影响

Effects of Climatic Change on Maize Varieties Distribution in the Future of Northeast China

为探求未来气候变化对我国东北玉米品种布局的影响,基于玉米生产潜力和气候资源利用率,结合区域气候模式输出的2011—2099年RCP_4.5,RCP_8.5两种气候背景气象资料和1961—2010年我国东北地区91个气象站的观测数据,分析了未来气候变化情况下,东北玉米品种布局、生产潜力、气候资源利用率的时空变化。结果表明:未来东北地区玉米可种植边界北移东扩,南部为晚熟品种,新扩展区域以早熟品种为主,不能种植区域减少。未来玉米生产潜力为南高北低,增加速率均高于历史情景,水分适宜度最低,而历史情景下温度是胁迫玉米生产的关键因子。未来东北玉米对气候资源利用率整体下降,其中RCP8.5情景利用率最低。

Rising ground temperature as a part of climate change has a considerable influence on the climate and environment. Northeast China, as one major grain area ensuring the food security in China, suffers serious impacts of the climate change. Traditional cultivation ways cannot adapt the new situation, leading to an increasing instability of the agricultural system. The planting system, structure and layout cannot match the original climatic resources. The research adopts the RCPs situation instead of the original SRES sce- narios data, to provide a reasonable variety selection, and a scientific basis for dealing with the climate change in the future. To explore effects of future climate change on maize varieties and climatic potential productivity in Northeast China, simulations are carried out with regional climate model, using two emis- sion scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5 during 2011--2099, and daily observations of 91 stations during 1961-- 2010. A series of analysis are carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution of maize variety, climatic potential productivity, resource utilization ratio under the situation of climate change in the future. The re- sult shows that in the baseline scenario （1961--2010）, the late maturing varieties can be planted in smaller southern areas, while they cannot grow in northern areas. Under the condition of RCP4.5 and RCP8. 5 （2011--2099）, suitable areas for late maturing varieties will expand, and in RCPS. 5, the suitable areas are the largest. The climatic potential productivity in Northeast China is high in the south while low in the north. In the baseline scenario, the annual production is 10492.54 kg hm-2, and in RCP4.5 it increases to 10697.16 kg hm-2 , while in RCPS. 5 it drops to 9410.17 kg hm-5. The maize potential productivity increases with this climate change trend in the whole area. In the baseline scenario, the radiation suitability