“十二五”期间大气污染治理措施对深圳市空气质量改善效果评估

Assessment of Air Quality Benefits from Control Measures in Shenzhen during the 12th Five-Year Plan

基于《深圳市大气环境质量提升计划》对"十二五"期间大气污染治理措施落实情况进行梳理总结,在现有最新的2015年深圳市大气污染源排放清单基础上,开展各项措施的大气污染减排量倒推估算;利用基准年排放清单和区域空气质量模式WRF-CMAQ搭建目标模拟区域的响应表面模型(RSM),结合各项措施减排量开展措施的空气质量改善效果评估。结果表明:"十二五"期间二十余项重点大气治理措施带来了约8.7微克/立方米的PM_(2.5)年均浓度的下降,其中,机动车污染控制措施带来了约3.0微克/立方米的PM_(2.5)的改善,排放削减贡献占比最高,为34.4%;扬尘排放削减贡献占比27.9%;电厂排放削减贡献占比21.1%;整体来说,"十二五"期间深圳市大气污染治理措施对空气质量的改善效果显著,与此同时,不利气象条件亦会在一定程度上抵消大气污染控制措施对空气质量的改善效果。

Based on Shenzben Air Quality Improvement plan, the implementation of air pollution control measures were summarized during the 12th Five-Year Plan.The emission reduction of main air pullutants were estimated using air pollutant emission inventory of Shenzhen in 2015. In order to evaluate the air quality benefits under the control measures, Response Surface Model （RSM） was applied ,which was established by using base year air pollutant emission inventory and the regional air quality model WRF-CMAQ .Over 20 measures reduced annual average density of PM2.5 by 8.7 ug/m3 during the 12th Five-Year Plan, vehicle emission control contributed for 3.0 ug/m3 and 34.4 %, dust pollution control contributed for 27.9 % and power plant pollution control contributed for 21.1%. Overall,control measures lead to significant air quality benefits from 2011 to 2015,meanwhile, bad meteorologic condition may weaken the air quality benefits from control measures.