中美经济政策不确定性与短期国际资本流动

Sino-US Economic Policy Uncertainty and Short-term International Capital Flows

本文检验了中美经济政策不确定性对我国短期国际资本流动的动态影响。基于MSIH(3)-VAR(3)模型和脉冲响应的结果表明,中国经济政策不确定性对短期国际资本有显著负向冲击,在高度不确定区制下冲击影响最大;美国经济政策不确定性对短期国际资本有显著正向冲击,在中度不确定区制下冲击影响最大。中美利差变大并不一定会吸引短期国际资本流入,而人民币预期贬值会导致短期国际资本流出。实证结果表明,保持经济政策稳定性和透明性,加强国际间政策协调合作将有助于管理短期国际资本流动。

This paper examines the dynamic effects of Sino-US economic policy uncertainty on the short-term international capi- tal flows in China. Based on the MSIH （3） -VAR （3） model and the impulse response results show that Chinese economic poli- cy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on short-term international capital, and in the highly uncertain regime has the largest impact. U.S. economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on short-term international capital, and in the moderate uncertainty regime has the greatest impact. Sino us. Interest spreads will not necessarily attract short-term internation- al capital inflows, and the expected depreciation of the RMB will lead to short-term international capital outflows. Maintaining the stability and transparency of economic policy and strengthening international policy coordination and cooperation will help to manage the short-term international capital flows.