人口老龄化背景下老龄产业发展的政企演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis on the Government and Corporations in the Aging Industry

发展老龄产业是人口老龄化发展的内在需求,产业发展初期离不开政府的大力扶持。通过构建政府扶持与企业行为的演化博弈模型,分析了老龄产业发展中政府扶持的有效条件和因素。博弈结果显示:政企两个群体在四种情况下存在演化稳定策略;同时,企业投资老龄产业的成本和收益、政府实施检查的成本,以及政府对企业的奖惩力度,是影响政企双方博弈结果的主要因素。依据博弈结果,提出了发展老龄产业的政策建议。

Against the backdrop of population aging, the development of the aging industry is an inevitable trend, and the initial stage of its development needs the government＇s great supports. This paper focuses on whether traditional supporting policies can guide the healthy development of the aging industry. It then analyzed the conditions and factors of government support through constructing an evolutionary game model. Game result shows that evolutionary stable strategy between government and enterprises exists in four cases. There are four factors impacting the game result： costs and profits of companies, costs of government inspections, and the level of penalty on businesses. The paper put forward some policy suggestions for the development of＂ the aging industry.