中国普惠金融发展水平测度与经济增长效应

The Measure of Financial Inclusion in China and Its Economic Growth Effect

发展普惠金融是新时代中国加快推进金融业可持续均衡发展和金融改革创新的战略重心。从金融服务渗透性、服务可得性、使用效用性和可负担性四个维度出发,结合中国国情构建了中国普惠金融指标体系,基于变异系数法对2005-2015年中国各地区普惠金融水平进行了测度。研究发现,中国各地区普惠金融发展程度整体还比较低,各区域发展不均衡,但各地区普惠金融发展的势头良好。基于固定效应的面板门槛模型实证分析了普惠金融发展水平的不同阶段对经济增长影响的非线性关系。研究发现,普惠金融发展对经济增长的双门槛效应确实存在,门槛1和门槛2的估计值分别为0.279和0.405,当普惠金融发展水平低于0.279时,其对经济增长的作用是正向的,但并不显著;当金融发展水平大于0.405时,其系数为0.004,对经济增长也其显著正向作用,但其值大小明显降低;当金融发展水平大于0.279且小于0.405时,其系数为0.094,对经济增长起着显著促进作用。这些结论为我们下阶段推动普惠金融发展提供了重要的对策依据和新的思路。

Development of Inclusive Finance is the strategic focus in accelerating balanced sustainable development and reform of China＇ s finance industry in the new era. This paper first establishes a System of China＇ s Inclusive Finance Index from 4 dimensions, including financial service permeability, service availability, applicability and affordability, and then measures the level of inclusive finance in China＇ s various regions during 2005 -2015 using the Coefficient of Variance method. The results show that despite the low and uneven development of China＇ s inclusive finance, its future prospect is encouraging. Panel Threshold Model based on Fixed Effect empirically studies the nonlinear impact of different stages of inclusive finance development on economic growth. The result is able to testify the existence of ＂dual threshold＂ effect of inclusive finance development on economic growth. The estimation result of Threshold 1 and Threshold 2 is 0. 279 and 0. 405 respectively. When the inclusive finance level is below 0. 279, its impact on economic growth is positive yet insignificant. When it is above 0. 405, with the coefficient of 0. 004, it has significant positive effect on economic growth, yet with a much lower value. When it＇ s between 0. 279 and 0. 405, its coefficient is 0. 094, implying a significant positive effect on economic growth. These results may offer new policy implications and insights on promoting China＇ s inclusive finance development in the future.