签证制度与入境游客流:基于引力模型的实证研究

Visa Regulations and Flows of Inbound Visitors:A Gravity-Model-Based Empirical Study

推动入境旅游市场规模成长是当前旅游领域的重大国家战略之一。在已有的文献中,研究者普遍认为签证制度便利化是促进中国入境旅游市场成长的一个重要推动力,但多数研究者只是笼统地论证了签证制度对中国入境旅游具有正向影响,而忽略了签证制度的不同细分类型分别对中国入境旅游市场规模的净效应。首先,本文剖析了中国签证制度的演变历程及各个阶段的典型签证制度的变革及其影响。其次,构建了引力模型,运用多元回归分析法以美国、俄罗斯等28个中国主要入境客源国(地区)2000年~2013年的面板数据为基础进行实证研究,结果表明:港澳台居民往来大陆通行证持有者免签制度对中国入境游客流的效应显著小于APEC商务旅行卡持有者免签制度;APEC商务旅行卡持有者免签制度对中国入境游客流的效应显著小于在中国境内停留时间不超过30日的普通签证制度。最后,提出了扩大APEC商务旅行卡持有者免签的适应人群等建议。

Pushing forward the growth of the inbound tourism market scale is one of the China＇ s major strategies in the field of current tourism. The authors find that the existing researches universally believe that the facilitation of visa regime is one of the important driving forces which promote China＇ s inbound tourism market growth while most of them claim that the visa system in general has a positive influence on China＇ s inbound tourism while ignoring that different segments of visa regime have respective influences on the net effect of China＇ s inbound tourism market scale, which is not helpful for accurately grasping the real effect of different visa system segments on China＇ s inbound tourism. This paper analyzed the evolution course of Chinese visa system and the typical visa regime in the various stages and theirs influences, built a gravity model to conduct an empirical study by using multiple regression analysis and 2000 - 2013 panel data from the United States, Russia and other 28 major Chinese inbound tourists＇ original countries （regions）. The results show that the effect of visa-free system for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents with the mainland pass＇ on China＇ s inbound tourist flow is significantly less than visa-free system for the APEC business travel card holders, and the effect of APEC business travel card holders visa-free system on China＇ s inbound tourist flow is significantly less than the common visa regime with the duration of a no-more-than-30-days stay in China. The paper ends some suggestions including expanding the visa-free crowd of APEC business travel card holders.