温州浮标站与海岛站极大风的相关性研究

The Research of the Correlation between Wenzhou Buoy Station and Island Stations Extreme Wind Speed

该文利用2011—2015年温州浮标站,洞头、南麂、北麂及北龙4个海岛站的常规观测资料,采用SPSS及EXCEL软件统计、分析和初步建立浮标站极大风与不同海岛站极大风之间的关系式,并分析影响关系式稳定性等因素,力求为温州沿海大风精细化预报的人工订正提供参考依据。分析结果表明:浮标站极大风与海岛站极大风之间的关系可视为线性相关,建立的关系式稳定性并不受风向和关系式拟合系数R^2的影响,但与研究样本的数量存在一定的对应关系,样本数量越多,越有利于关系式的稳定。

According to the conventional observation data from 2011 to 2015 in the Wenzhou Buoy Station andfour island stations including Dongtou, Nanji,Beiji and Beilong,this paper establislies the extreme wind spelation between the buoy station and diferent island stations applying SPSS and EXCEL, and analyzes elements which influence the stability of tlie relation,in order to provide the reference for tlie manual correction of Wenzhou coastal gale fine forecasting. The results show that tliere is a linear relationship between the extreme wind speed ofthe buoy station and that of island stations,and the stability of tlie relation is not influenced by the coefficient R2,however which relates to the research sample quantity. The large quantity benefits tlie stability ofthe relation.