人力资本结构高级化与经济增长——兼论东中西部地区差距的形成和缩小

Human Capital Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth:A Reconsideration of Disparities among China's Eastern,Central and Western Regions

以初级人力资本向高级人力资本演进为特征的人力资本结构高级化,能够通过推动技术结构升级和产业结构升级对经济增长产生重要的促进作用。构建考虑各层次人力资本相对变化的人力资本结构高级化指数,并采用动态面板模型的实证研究支持了这一假说。在此基础上,通过对比分析人力资本结构高级化等因素差异对东中西地区差距的影响,发现相对于人力资本存量等其他因素,人力资本结构高级化能更好地解释东中西部地区差距。其政策含义是,政府从单纯注重提升人力资本存量转向促进人力资本结构高级化,并通过重点调控小学、初中、高等教育程度人力资本缩小其地区差异,是新常态下推动经济快速协调发展的又一着力点。

Summary： Since the 1978 economic reform, China＇s economy has grown rapidly. Meanwhile, the human capital structure has experienced drastic changes. One feature of these changes is the reduction in low-education human capital and the increase in high-education human capital. Such a change raises many interesting questions for both research and policy. Has the human capital structure change characterized by increasing higher education attainment promoted economic growth？ Of the human capital structure upgrade and the total human capital stock increase, which is more important for economic development？ Can human capital structure upgrading help explain regional disparity？ In this study, we explore these questions using provincial-level panel data from China. It is generally believed that heterogeneous human capital may differ in its contributions to economic growth. Moreover, human capital appears to have downward compatibility （ i. e. , high-level human capital can substitute for low-level human capital, but not vice versa）. In this study, we define human capital structure upgrading as the process of a country or region improving its human capital structure and moving from human capital with low-level education to higher-level education. Modern economic growth depends on technological innovation, which relies on quality human capital. As a result, the rising share of advanced human capital and declining share of primary human capital in the structure of a country＇s human capital should play a key role in its economic development. In general, technology advancement and industry structure improvement are important determinants of economic development. Human capital structure upgrading will affect innovation and the adoption of new technology, and help guide changes in industrial structure to achieve the optimal match with technology progress. Therefore, the process provides a channel through which human capital structure upgrading, characterized by moving from low-quality to high-quality human capital, promotes economic development. In this study, we construct an index of human capital structure upgrading that includes changes in human capital in different education categories, and estimate its effect on economic growth and regional income inequality. We apply the GMM method using China＇s provincial panel data from 1987 to 2011, and makes two main contributions： （1） creating a human capital structure upgrading index that can capture relative changes in human capital with different education levels and using the index to measure the structure changes of human capital in China; and （2） analyzing the effect of human capital structure on economic growth and regional income disparity. We find that human capital structure can better explain the disparities among the eastern, central and western regions of China than other measurements of human capital stock. The policy implications of improving human capital structure versus overall human capital stock are discussed. In particular, the main findings are as follows. （ 1 ） Human capital structure upgrading can promote economic growth and its effect is statistically significant. The marginal effect of human capital structure is larger than that of total human capital stock. （2） Human capital structure difference can better explain the income disparity among the eastern, central and western regions of China than total human capital stock or other factors. （3） Human capital structure differs significantly among regions. More specifically, the share of human capital with primary education is higher in the central and western regions than in the eastern region, while the share of human capital with tertiary education is lower. Policy implications based on our findings include the following： （ 1 ） Under the ＂new economic norm＂ proposed by the government, to achieve sustainable development of the Chinese economy the government should focus more on human capital structure improvement. （2） To reduce regional economic disparity, policies that can help reduce the structural gap in human capital by balancing different levels of education will be more effective.