国内价值链与区域经济周期协同：来自中国的经验证据

National Value Chain and Interregional Business Cycle Synchronization:Evidence from China

本文采用2002年、2007年和2010年中国30个省区区域间投入产出表,就国内价值链对区域经济周期协同性的影响进行了全方位考察。结果表明,国内价值链贸易增强了中国地区间经济周期的联动性,而在控制国内价值链贸易之后,区际贸易却降低了两地区产出的协同程度,区际贸易具有的Frankel-Rose效应主要是国内价值链贸易的作用结果。在引入省区官员交流等工具变量控制内生性后,结果仍是稳健的。同时,国内价值链贸易的传导效应不仅受价值链分工地位差异的影响,而且呈现出显著的危机前后时段特征和东部与中西部内外空间特征。进一步纳入全球价值链后发现,全球价值链贸易对国内价值链贸易的正向经济周期协同效应具有放大作用,而传统国际贸易对传统区际贸易的负向经济周期冲击存在叠加效应,国内价值链联结的区际分工网络是保证中国经济外向型发展过程中各地区之间经济紧密联动、协同共进的重要力量。

Summary： With the rise of value-chain trade, its role in global business cycle synchronization is now the focus of international macroeconomics. Most scholars have investigated the effect of value-chain trade on the correlation of global economies under the Frankel-Rose （FR） effect framework. Burstein et al. （2008） , Ng （2010） and Duval et al. （2016） consider that value-chain trade can change the role of the FR effect, and that it can significantly improve bilateral output co- movement, but after controlling it, traditional bilateral trade has no significant--even negative--influence on bilateral output co-movement. However, Di and Levchenko （2010） and Pan et al. （2015） argue that value-chain trade amplifies the FR effect. Either view indicates that the global value chain （GVC） has a profound impact on global business cycle synchronization. During its integration into the global production system, China＇s national value chain （NVC） has developed rapidly. The NVC is a professional network production mode corresponding to the GVC. Specifically, the NVC is led and governed by local firms, which integrate domestic raw material supply, component production, product assembly and logistics distribution based on the domestic market. Thus, an important issue is the relationship between NVC and interregional business cycle synchronization, in other words, whether China＇s regional economies will be linked by the NVC. Although Su （2016）, Lee ＆ Pan （2016） and Li （2016） explored the NVC, none of them researched the relationship between NVC and interregional business cycle synchronization. This paper is not a simple repetition of the literature on the linkage between GVC and international business cycle synchronization because there are two significant differences between interregional and international business cycle synchronization. First, the subject status is different. Regions within a country must use the same currency, and cannot use different monetary and exchange policies （like sovereign countries） to eliminate asymmetric macroeconomic shocks across regions. Second, the sources of shocks are different. International business cycle synchronization derives from common shocks such as global oil prices and spillover effects from international trade and investment. However, interregional business cycle synchronization not only relates to the international economic environment; it is mostly driven by close interregional trade and divisions within a common currency zone. Unfortunately, the current research on China＇s interregional business cycle is more a simple description of facts. Although Huang et al. （2011 ） and Xu and Hong （2013） used gravity models to indirectly confirm that China＇s interregional business cycle synchronization also falls under the FR effect, they did not investigate the transmission effect of NVC to interregional business cycle synchronization. This paper adopts China＇s regional input-output tables to investigate the effect of NVC on interregional business cycle synchronization. The results show that NVC trade increases interregional business cycle synchronization, while interregional trade decreases bilateral output co-movement, so interregional trade＇s FR effect is mainly caused by NVC trade. At the same time, the transmission effect of NVC is not only affected by the value-chain position difference between regions, but also by significant time and space characteristics. Further, GVC trade amplifies the positive effect of NVC trade on interregional output co-movement, while traditional international trade amplifies the negative effect of traditional interregional trade. Thus, NVC is an important force ensuring that regional economies grow closely and synchronously during China＇s export-oriented development. Breaking through the global perspective of research on value-chain trade and the business cycle, this paper provides rare empirical evidence of the role of value-chain trade in business cycle synchronization within a developing country. This paper confirms that NVC plays a leading role in promoting interregional output co-movement, which guides China＇s adjustments to regional policies and its construction of a new opening system in the process of deepening reform.