H7N9型禽流感传播模型的动力学分析

Dynamical Analysis of the H7N9 Avian Influenza Transmission Model

根据H7N9型禽流感形成的基因检测结果,建立了H7N9型流感病毒在人类中传播的动力学模型.模型中包括水禽、家禽、人3个群体,经过计算得到了平衡点和各个群体的基本再生数,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.发现当两类普通流感病毒形成一种新的流感病毒时,不但要控制新型流感病毒在人类中的传播作用,而且要控制普通流感病毒在禽类中的传播,才能有效控制流感病毒在人类中的传播;同时应该尽量避免水禽与家禽之间的接触,减少新型流感病毒的形成对人类造成感染.这为控制H7N9型流感病毒从禽类到人类的传播提供了理论依据.

In this paper, according to the results of genetic testing from H7N9 avian influenza, a dynamic model including H7N9 influenza virus is established. In the model, three groups are considered. They are waterfowl, poultry and human. Through analysis the equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number of each group are obtained. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point under different conditions are proved. The results show that when the two kinds of common flu virus form a new flu virus, the best way to control the spread among the human population is not only to control the spread of the new flu virus effect, but also to control the spread of the common flu virus in poultry. At the same time it is as far as possible to cut the way of contact between waterfowl and poultry. The results provide an effective method for controlling the H7N9 avian influenza spread among poultry and human.