中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Coal Mine Accidents in China

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论:(1)中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;(2)以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。(3)重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;(4)建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。

Coal mine accidents bring huge loss of life and property to the country and the people. Grasping the occurrence laws of coal mine accidents and the influencing factors of regional coal mine safety is helpful to the safety of coal mine production. This paper tries to research on the coal mine accidents using the theory and method of GIS. Based on the spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal evolution model, we analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of coal mine accidents in China from 2006 to 2015 and the influencing factors and relative risk of provincial coal mine safety. The results are as follows： there is obvious spatial autocorrelation of coal mine accidents in China, but the self-correlation is declining with the improvement of coal mine safety production situation in each province. The space-center evolution model of coal mine accidents is expressed by the spatial center of gravity transition curve. The coal mine accident center was shifted to the Northeast in the past ten years, which indicated the improvement of coal mine safety production situation in the southwestern provinces is more obvious than that in the east. The provinces and autonomous regions with frequent occurrence of major accidents tend to have a low coal mine million tons of mortality due to the strong implementation of regulatory measures. Also, the provinces and autonomous regions with the low coal mine production capacity always have a high death rate per million-ton coal. The Bayesian spatial model based on explanatory variables is established to evaluate the relative risk of coal mine accidents in different provinces and autonomous regions. The relative risk of coal mine safety production has an obvious spatial law and is quite different in different provinces and regions in China. The provinces with relatively high risk are mainly located in southern region, such as Hubei and Fujian. Provinces with lower risk are mainly located in the eastern region, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.