“营改增”前后增值税税收能力与税收努力的差异——基于区域与行业视角的实证分析

The Difference Between Tax Capacity and Tax Effort of Value Added Tax:Empirical Analysis Based on the Regional and Industry Perspective

文章基于我国2006-2015年的统计数据,利用代表性税制法分别对全国、不同地区及不同行业的增值税税收能力与税收努力进行了估算分析。研究表明:"营改增"后我国增值税税收能力与税收努力的增长速度明显放缓,我国增值税税收能力最高的为东部地区、中部次之、西部最低,税收努力则是东部最高、西部次之、中部最低,且东、中、西部之间的增值税税收能力与税收努力间都存在显著差异。工业、批发零售业和交通运输业的增值税税收能力表现为东部最高、中部次之、西部最低,且增值税税收能力在不同区域及不同行业间都存在显著差异。不同行业的增值税税收努力基本表现为批发零售业最高、工业次之、交通运输业最低,2012年的"营改增"试点对增值税税收能力的增能效应是存在的,但具有较大的不确定性。

Based on the statistical data of China between 2006 and 2015, statistical calculations of tax capaci- ty of value added tax are done by representative tax system. The statistical results show that. （1）The growth rate of tax capacity and tax effort slowed down significantly after the Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax. （2） The degree of tax effort in different industries is highest in the Wholesale and retail trade, the industry is the second, and the transportation industry is the lowest. （3） The tax capacity is highest in the east, the middle is the second, and the west is the lowest. As for tax effort, which is high- est in the east, the west is the second, and the middle is the lowest. Either tax capacity or tax effort exists significant differences between East ,middle and west. （4） The degree of tax capacity of different indus- tries is highest in the east, the middle is the second, and the west is the lowest. And the tax capacity ex- ists significant differences between different regions and industries. （5） The Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax in 2012 exists the effect of increasing tax capacity of value added tax, but it has great un- certainty.