新媒体给现代舆情管控带来的挑战——基于反沉默螺旋理论

The Challenges Taken by New Media of Modern Public Opinion Control——Based on the Anti-Reticence Spiral Theory

【目的/意义】新媒体中反沉默现象具有传播行为的双重性、匿名化的自我性和利益驱动性。它是新媒体所特有的属性,也是现代舆情在互联网环境下外在表现形式。【方法/过程】通过演化博弈中的"囚徒困境"模型来阐述反沉默螺旋中受众群体的行为趋向性与受众收益影响因素。【结果/结论】结果表明当受众群体非理智型占多数时,则在新媒体的现代舆情中反沉默现象将尤为显著;同时受众收益的影响因素与受众行为、信息公开性、传播速度等直接相关,进而为新时期的舆情管控提供理论依据。同时根据研究模型计算结果提出新时期舆情管控策略。

【Purpose/significance】The new media phenomenon of ＂anti-silence spiral＂ has three distinguishing features which are the dual nature of communication behavior, the anonymity of self and the drive of interest. It is the unique attribute of the new media, and also the external manifestation of the modern public opinion in the Internet environment.【Method/process】In this paper, the Prisoner Dilemma model in evolutionary game is used to explain the behavior tendency and audience income factors of the audience in anti-silence spiral, and then the theoretical basis for the public opinion management in the new period is provided.【Result/conclusion】The results show that when the majority of audiences are non-rational, The new media phenomenon of ＂anti-silence spiral＂ is particularly significant; at the same time, influenced factors of return relate to the audience behavior, information openness and the propagation velocity directly.According to the calculation results of the research model, the public opinion control strategies in the new period are put forward.