快速城镇化背景下城市人口“隐性收缩”的特征与机制——以广东省茂名市为例

Feature and Mechanism of the "Hiding Shrinkage" for Urban Population under the Background of Fast Urbanization: A Case Study of Maoming of Guangdong Province

快速城镇化带来的人口迁移,为一些城市注入了增长动力,也使得另一些城市面临人口流出带来的发展困境。本文以传统工业城市广东省茂名市为研究对象,分析快速城镇化进程中,茂名人口收缩现象的外在特征和内在机理。通过研究可以看到,茂名的人口外流是户籍人口低于常住人口"倒挂"格局下,以农业人口流出为主的"隐性收缩"现象。这一过程伴随着产业、空间和财政收支持续增长的特点,与西方国家所经历的标志着城市衰败的收缩现象存在本质差异。茂名城市人口的"隐性收缩"既是中国特有的户籍制度的产物,同时也是城市发展过程中,城市人口规模在市场机制作用下进行自我调适的结果。在此背景下,茂名应当抓住农业人口流出的契机,优化产业结构,吸引高端人才流入,推动传统工业城市的发展转型。

Migration brought by the urbanization make some cities＇ developments robust and others face dilemma of city shrinking. This paper focuses on the traditional industrial city Maoming, and analyzes feature and mechanism of its shrinking phenomenon. In this research, it could be found that the shrinking population is just a ＂hiding shrinkage＂ between the resident population and Hukou population, which is underpinned by agricultural household residents. The population shrinking in Maoming happens with the growth of city industry, urban space and governments＇ revenue and expenditures. This kind of population shrinking is just a process and stage of self- correction in the urban development, as well as a result of unique Chinese Hukou institution and a reaction to the labor market mechanism, which is absolutely different from that in western world with urban declining. Under the background of this kind city shrinking, optimization of city industry construction, attracting high-end talents on the basis of agricultural population migrating could be transformation and development. the best policy to promote the traditional industrial city＇s