基于贝叶斯网络的高铁PPP项目政府担保研究

Research on the Government Guarantee of High Speed Rail PPP Projects Based on Bayesian Network

针对高铁PPP项目建设运营周期长、其影响因素具有高度不确定性和错综复杂的特点,建立描述影响因素传递作用关系的贝叶斯网络(BN)模型。以BN的推理计算结果为依据,根据实物期权理论,分析高铁PPP项目的政府担保水平。通过案例分析验证该方法的可行性,为解决高铁PPP项目的政府担保问题提供参考。

For the high-speed rail PPP projects that construction operation cycle is long,and influencing factors are highly uncertain and complex,the paper establishes the Bayesian Network（BN）model to describe the transmission relationship of influencing factors. Based on BN＇s reasoning calculation results and theory of real option,analyzes the level of government guarantee of high-speed rail PPP projects. Case analysis demonstrates the feasibility of the model,which provides references to solve the problems of government guarantee for highspeed rail PPP projects.