资本账户开放的具体次序——对中国政策选择的启示

The Sequence of the Capital Account Liberalization——Policy Implications for China

资本账户开放是金融全球化的一个必然趋势,而从以往各国的开放实践中,理论界得出了如何正确安排资本账户的内部具体次序对开放的效果有着至关重要影响的结论。本文在追踪了国际上对资本账户开放的具体次序的研究的最新进展之后,对文献中有关中国的部分进行了较为详细的综述。文章指出,中国的资本账户开放也是在以一个渐进的方式推进。即使是在如何开放的问题上,对于资本账户开放的模式(激进或渐进),资本账户同经常账户之间的先后次序等的讨论大多也是在理论层面上的论述,甚至就是在资本账户内部的次序方面,如直接投资和间接投资、长期投资和短期投资等的次序,也已经落后于中国自身的开放实践了。在我国具体的资本账户开放进程中,理论中所划分的阶段之间的界限已逐渐模糊。中国目前的政策安排重点是在如何确定资本账户子账户之间的先后次序上。

The capital account liberalization is an inevitable trend of financial globalization.Based on the different nations' practice and the literatures,it shows that the sequence of the openness of capital account has a critical influence on the effects of the policy.In this paper,we reviewed the newest literatures on tracking the international capital account liberalization,especially the literatures on China's economy.The article points out,China's capital account liberalization is a gradual procedure instead of a Bigbang. Even the question of how to open,for the capital account open mode(radical or incremental),the sequence between the capital account and the current account,the literatures focus only on the theoretical bases.Even in the capital account openness sequence context,such as direct investment and indirect investment,long-term investment and short-term investments,has also been behind the opening of China's own practice.In China's capital account opening process specific,the theory has become blurred.Last,the paper gives some policy application suggestions.