资本账户开放对股票价格传导机制研究

The Capital Account Liberalization to the Stock Price Transmission Mechanism Study

改革开放以来,伴随着我国资本账户开放的进一步深入,我国资本市场与国际资本市场的联系更加紧密,受到国际资本市场的影响更加深重。最近几年,资本账户开放对我国股票市场价格和收益的传导作用得到了充分的体现,在资本账户开放的进程中,股票收益率受到国际市场利率的影响作用不断加强。资本账户开放是一把利弊兼有的"双刃剑",在推动股票价格和收益率提高的同时,也给股票市场带来了巨大的风险。这首先是大量国际短期资本的涌入所导致的股票市场价格波动的风险;其次是我国金融监管水平相对落后或金融监管无效性所引致的监管风险;再次是国内券商所面临的竞争性风险。资本账户开放作为我国改革开放的一项重要内容,我们一定要正视资本账户开放给股票市场带来的风险,通过制度建设、加强监管、正确设计资本账户开放次序以及提高国内金融机构竞争力等措施来规避风险,从而促进我国金融开放的顺利进行。

Since reform and opening,along with the capital account liberalization of China further,China's capital markets have more widely association with international capital markets,and have even more profound impact by the international capital markets. In recent years,the capital account liberalization of China has reflected the price and yield of the stock market,stock returns has grown by the impact of the international role.Capital account liberalization is a mixed bag,'double-edged sword',in the promotion of the stock price and yield increase,but also to the tremendous stock market risk.First,the influx of a large number of international short-term capital led to fluctuations in stock market prices;Second,as the level of financial supervision in China is relatively backward or invalidity,it resulted in financial regulators regulatory risks;Third,the domestic securities firms faced competing risks. Capital account liberalization is an important part of China's reform and opening,we must face up to the risks associated with the stock market in the capital account liberalization,and avoid risk through institutional building,strengthening the supervision,and designing the right sequence of the capital account liberalization,as well as increasing the competitiveness of domestic financial institutions and so on,so as to promote China's finance opening up smoothly.