持久性收入对山东省农民消费影响的实证分析

Demonstration Analysis of Permanent Income on the Shandong Province Farmer' s Consumption

最近几年,国内有效需求不足,消费增长缓慢,农村消费不足的问题尤其严重。山东是农业大省,对山东农民消费的分析有利于山东省农业经济发展和农民生活水平的提高,也为其他省市提供借鉴。本文选择弗里德曼的持久性收入假说分析山东省农民消费问题,并运用山东省农民的消费数据进行了计量经济学分析,最后从增加持久性收入和提高持久性收入的边际消费倾向方面提出政策性意见,以增加山东省农民消费。

In recent years,the domestic available demand is deficient,the consumption increases very slowly,which is especially serious in the countries.Shandong province plays a very important role in china's agriculture,so analyzing Shandong province farmers consumption is good for the development of the Shandong province economy and the improvement of the farmer's living standard.It can also serve other province as reference.This paper chooses Friedman's permanent income hypothesis to analyze Shandong province farmer's consumption and do some econometrical analyses with the data that indicate Shandong province farmer's consumption.At last,this paper gives out some political suggestions from two aspects,which are increasing the permanent income and raising the relevant marginal propensity to consume,to improve Shandong province farmer's consumption.