摘要
为有效降低跨海大桥船桥碰撞风险、提高桥区水域安全,建立一种适用于跨海大桥的量化船桥碰撞风险评估方法。首先,结合Bow-tie模型与模糊集合理论,构建跨海大桥船桥碰撞风险评估的模糊Bow-tie模型来定量分析各结果事件概率;然后,用敏感性分析方法揭示船桥碰撞的主要影响因素;最后,通过对某跨海大桥通航风险评估,实例验证所建评估方法的有效性。结果表明：基于估的模糊Bow-tie模型的风险评估方法适用于跨海大桥船桥碰撞的风险评估,且实现评估由定性到定量的转变,为海事监管部门的安全管理提供决策支持。
In order to effectively reduce the risk of ship sea-bridge collision and improve the safety in bridge area,a new quantitative risk assessment method was therefore worked out. For working out the method,first,the Bow-tie model and the fuzzy set theory were combined to establish a fuzzy-Bow-tie model to quantitatively analyze the outcome events. Then the sensitivity analysis was applied to reveal the main impact factors leading to the collision. At last a risk assessment sample was given. The results show that the method based on fuzzy-Bow-tie model is suitable for quantitative assessment of risk of ship bridge collision,and that it can also provide decision support for safety management.
作者
陈伟炯
卢忆宁
张善杰
谢启苗
许循齐
郭锦春
CHEN Weijiong1,2 ,LU Yining1,2 ,ZHANG Shanjie2,3 ,XIE Qimiao1,2 ,XU Xunqi2,4, GUO Jinchun2,5(1 College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China ; 2 Marine Public Safety Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; 3 Institute of Scientific ＆ Technical Intelligence, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China ;4 Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China ; 5 Yangshan Port Maritime Bureau, Shanghai 202461, Chin)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期87-92,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71503166)
