机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价

Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots and airport operational risk assessment

为研究大型机场航空器地面滑行冲突风险,提出一种基于机场热点时空分布特征的机场机动区运行风险评价方法。首先,以中南地区某机场为例,将场监雷达数据按每3 h分段,分别识别各时间段的机场热点,分析其时空分布特征;然后,基于热点发生的可能性和后果的严重性,构建考虑航空器冲突架次比、冲突可能性、冲突持续时间、冲突级别的机场热点风险评价模型,依据现有机场热点风险等级评价标准,评价该机场的热点风险等级。结果表明：该机场02号跑道运行风险高于20号跑道;02号跑道起降时,12：00—15：00点的机场热点风险最高;20号跑道起降时,9：00—12：00点机场热点的风险较高,与该机场实际运行情况基本相符。

In order to study the risk of aircraft taxiing conflicts in large airports,a method was worked out for evaluating the operational risk of airport maneuvering area based on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots. Firstly,an airport in the south-central region of China was taken as an example,whose aerodrome surveillance radar data was divided into several 3 hours long segments,and airport hotspots were identified for the segments,and their spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed. Then a risk assessment model was built,in which the possibility of hotspots formation,severity of the consequence of the recognized hotspots,conflict sortie ratio of aircrafts,level of conflict possibility,duration of conflict and conflict level were considered. Based on the existing risk level assessment standards,the risk levels of the airport hotspots were evaluated. According to the results,risk levels of airport hotspots are affected by airport traffic flow and operational modes of runway. The operational risk of runway 02 is higher than that of runway 20. If the runway 02 is used for landing or taking-off,the highest risk level will be reached in the segment of 12： 00-15： 00. And if the runway 20 isused,the risk level of hotspots is relatively high in the segment of 9： 00-12： 00. The results conform with the reality of the airport.