基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN

为改善深水井控人机配合情况,运用动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）方法分析深水井控人机界面系统的可靠性。基于深水井控人机交互流程,构建系统安全屏障结构图,并转化为对应的DBN模型;依据DBN方法的时间属性,研究系统及各子系统不维修与维修状态下可靠度时间分布;借助贝叶斯后验推理及敏感性分析能力,辨识人机界面系统薄弱风险点。研究结果表明：维修因素是影响深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的关键因素;维修条件下,人因可靠性对深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的影响最大。

For the sake of improving human-machine cooperation,a reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system was carried out based on DBN approach. According to human-machine interaction procedures,safety barrier structure of the system was built and converted into a DBN model. Based on time-property of DBN,relationships between reliability of both system and subsystems and time,under non-maintenance and maintenance conditions,were analyzed. Using posterior reasoning and sensitivity analysis of DBN,weak risk points of human-machine surface system were identified. The results show that the maintenance is the key factor affecting the reliability of human-machine surface system,and that under the maintenance condition,human factor has the greatest influence on the reliability of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system.