东北地区资源型城市人口分布与影响因素的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Population Distribution and Influencing Factors of Resource-based Cities in Northeast China

基于2000~2014年东北地区资源型城市面板数据,分析转型期间人口时空格局变化特征以及影响因素。研究发现,转型以来东北资源型城市人口的空间分布不均衡状态不断加剧,只有25%的城市人口集中水平保持不变或小幅提升,75%的资源型城市人口集聚水平下降。从城市类型来看,石油型城市人口吸纳能力优于冶金型城市、森工型城市和煤炭型城市。选择个体时刻固定效应模型回归分析,得出产业结构调整、交通便捷程度、医疗社会服务、环境质量等因素对人口空间集中分布产生较明显的作用,未来可通过产业结构升级、提高在岗工资水平、加强基本公共服务完善和交通网络建设等方面提高资源型城市人口集聚能力。

With keeping a high-speed growth since reform policy, resource-based cities in Northeast China have encountered both social and economic changes caused by internal transition as well as external factors. As one of the main factors that effect the cities transition development, it is important to strenghen research on popula- tion distribution charateristics of resource-based cities, to provide scientific supports for both resource alloca- tion and policy making. This article aims to reveal the population spatial distribution of the northeast re- source-based cities during the transition developing process. The study constructs indicators for the population, economy, society, and environment based on the sustainable development theory with referring data. The spa- tial-temporal pattern and the effects of other factors are examined at the city level in resource-based cities in Northeast China from 2000 to 2014. The key conclusions of this study are as follows： 1） Nearly 75% of re- source-based cities, population agglomeration levels declined in the Northeast during transition process. Yic- hun lost much more population than other places,while Daqing＇ s attracting ability kept being the strongest. Ac- cording to the resource attribution, coal cities are qualitified capable of attracting population than mining cit- ies, and the forest cities are the worst. 2） Four stages of population change can be identified according to their unbalanced coefficient values. The first stage was from 2000 to 2002, the level went smoothly without big fluc- tuation. In 2003-2005, the unbalanced situation accelerated with the resource-based cities＇ population moving activity became stronger. During the third time, under the government financial help, the population agglomera- tion ability of resource-based cities decaresed slowly. However, the situation did not turn well after 2013, many people prefered to go outside searching more opportunities. 3） The development of a service industry, traffic transportation, medical treatment, social insurance and environmental quality were found to make signif- icant contributions to the population development during the transition process in resource-based cities; howev- er, income level and education were not found to be as effective as other factors. Overall, the population change in the resource-based cities matches with the economic transition process. In the future, applying the in- novation, increasing the income, and upgrading management systems can enlarge the capacity of attracting peo- ple for the resource-based cities. Additionally, government and enterprises should also change their traditional planning models, implement well-directed measures and solve the historical problems such as laid-off work- ers＇ social insurance gradually and moderately by taking a sufficient consideration of both inside and outside circumstances.