中国通胀预期管理的实践与效应——基于异质预期理论的研究

On Practice and Effect of Inflation Expectation Management in China:Based on Heterogeneous Expectation Theory

基于异质预期理论，将经济主体分为公众、专业机构和中央银行3类。然后测算了我国2005年至2015年三类经济主体之间以及经济主体内部的通胀预期异质性，并对我国通胀预期管理实践的效应进行了分析。整体而言，预期管理的实践确实缩小了经济主体间的通胀预期异质性，同时预期异质性也受到宏观经济和实际物价水平变动情况的影响。因此，在宏观经济和物价水平发生较大波动的时期，央行更应该加强预期管理，避免经济主体间预期异质性程度的进一步加大，同时还要注重疏导专业机构预期向公众预期的传导路径。

Based on the heterogeneous expectation theory, this paper divides economic subjects into three types, i.e. the public, professional institutions, and the Central Bank. Using the data of China from 2005 to 2015, this paper measures the inflation expectations of the public, professional institutions, and the Central Bank as well as the heterogeneity expectation among them. On the whole, the inflation expectation management does shrink the heterogeneity expectation, while heterogeneity expectation is also influenced by the fluctuation of macro-economy and real price level. Thus, when both macro-economy and real price level fluctuate remark- ably, it is more important for the Central Bank to strengthen expectation management, which will avoid the expansion of heterogeneity expectation. Meanwhile, it is also expected to clear the way which can conduct infla- tion expectation from professional institutions to the public.