地区工业结构与二氧化碳影子价格异质性

Regional Industrial Structure and Heterogeneity of Carbon Dioxide Shadow Prices

二氧化碳影子价格能够为完善碳排放权交易定价机制提供参考。基于2003~2013年省级面板数据,采用方向性距离函数法和门限回归模型,探讨工业二氧化碳影子价格的变化规律。研究发现：中国工业碳影子价格呈明显的上升趋势,显示出二氧化碳的边际减排成本在逐年增加;各地区工业碳影子价格差别较大,东部地区的价格较高,中西部地区的价格相对较低;地区工业产权结构、轻重结构差异是导致工业二氧化碳影子价格异质性的重要因素,在不同的工业结构下,工业资本存量对碳影子价格的影响存在显著的门限效应。实证分析结果的启示在于,构建全国统一的碳排放权交易市场需要考虑各地区工业发展的差异性,应逐步建立和完善多层次的碳排放权市场体系。

The carbon dioxide shadow prices can be beneficial for the improvement of carbon emissions allowance trading pricing mechanism. This paper analyzes the internal mechanism of the industrial carbon diox- ide shadow prices with directional distance function and threshold regression model, using the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013. Results show that firstly, China＇s industrial carbon shadow prices show a significantly upward trend, which indicates that the marginal abatement costs of carbon dioxide have been increasing year by year. Secondly, the industrial carbon dioxide shadow prices are obviously different in various regions. The Eastern part of China are of higher prices, while the Central and Western parts are of lower price. Lastly, the difference of regional industrial property right structure and light-weight structure are the important factors which lead to the heterogeneity of the industrial carbon dioxide shadow prices. Under different industrial struc- tures, the influence of the industrial capital stock on the carbon shadow price has a significant threshold effect. The implication of the empirical analysis lies in that China should consider the actual situation of regional in- dustrial development in the process of building a unified national carbon emissions allowance trading market, and gradually establish and improve the multi-level carbon emissions allowance trading market systems.