城镇化和乡城转移对未来中国城乡人口年龄结构的影响

The Impact of Urbanization on China's Future Rural and Urban Age Structure

随着社会经济的发展和国家对新型城镇化的推动,中国人口城镇化进入加速阶段,乡城人口转移也越来越活跃。乡城人口转移不仅会带来乡城人口数量和比例的变化,还会影响乡城人口的年龄结构,进而影响乡城的社会经济发展以及城镇化的水平和速度。文章利用中国第五次和第六次人口普查数据以及要素推算法,估算了2000~2010年间乡城人口的转移规模和分年龄转移率,并在此基础上推算出乡城人口转移条件下,中国未来乡城人口年龄结构的变化。结果表明,未来乡城会面临比较剧烈的人口年龄结构变化,农村总人口抚养比将大幅度上升,老龄化程度和速度都远高于城镇地区。受未来农村人口年龄结构的影响,中国乡城人口转移的速度将趋缓。

Along with the social and economic development and urbanization policy, China＇s urbanization has entered into an accelerating period and the rural-urban migration becomes a maior driving force.According to the national urban planning, China＇s urbanization rate would reach to 60% in 2020 and 70% in 2030, respectively.Using the 2000 and 2010 population census data and population balancing equation,this looper makes an estimation of the age-specific rural-urban transfer rate between 2000-2010 and conducts prediction of rural and urban age structure in 2010-2030.The results suggest that population ageing in rural area would speed up and the old dependency ratio in rural area would become much higher than that in urban area. Working age population would also face the problem of ageing.The school age population would decrease in rural area and increase in urban area.Both rural and urban area will face the challenge of the rapid change of age structure.The society needs to plan and prepare well for both rural and urban age structure change,focusing especially on the equal right for migrants in urban area and the development of rural area.